The Political Economy of the Eurozone: The Short-term and the Long-term View

Introduction

The key point of my talk is that EMU has two very different types of problems, depending on whether you think of the short or the long term.

• The short-term one is a combination of excessively low growth, massive sovereign debt because of the links between weak banks and governments, and no way out (weak banks increase sovereign debt, which translates into weak banks).
• The long-term one is that two very different types of economies were integrated into EMU, without a political mechanism that compensates for the negative effects of these differences.

Αμαρτίες γονέων τέκνα παιδεύουσι: passing on debt overhang

For a pdf version of the paper, containing the relevant figures, please click here.

What follows is an outline of the Greek sovereign debt crisis from a perspective that is certainly not mainstream - at least not in the sense of what every major political, economic, and media outlet loves to hate nowadays. For my interpretation as to how the crisis came about will be neither structural nor cultural. Of course, national economies do grow or decline because of social and economic substructures, political institutions, and cultural traits. Yet, these refer to long-term processes whereas serious sovereign debt crises usually evolve over relatively short (often too short) periods of time. Sovereign bankruptcies, much like those of large private companies, occur because three unfortunately too human factors are allowed to carry the day in the highest echelons of strategic decision-making. These are irresponsible greed, incompetence, and irrationality (a term which many a time is meant more as an euphemism for stupidity).